NFL Preview, Part 1

Somehow, it’s already September. Which means the summer is winding down, the days are getting short, and I’ll soon start to once again question why I chose to live in a city that gets so freakishly freakin’ cold.

On the plus side, it means the dark days of sports are also coming to an end. Baseball playoffs are soon. Another basketball season approaches.

And, of course, the NFL begins.

The NFL is by far my favorite league to follow. The season is just the right length – not too long, like the other major sports, where each game is rarely significant. Cliché as it is, it is undeniably true that every week matters. And the playoff format is the most satisfying – it doesn’t last too long, and doesn’t allow too many teams in.

Too, the quality of play is such that there are very few uncompetitive games. Some people bemoan the fact that there aren’t the dominant teams like there were in the past, but I found that boring. Who wants to basically know how the season is going to end before it even begins? That’s how it felt with those 49er and Cowboys teams that won Super Bowls in the 80s and 90s. It’s better now – no one really knows who is going to win it. There are at least six teams that could make a really good case for it now, and another six to eight that could be right there if they get lucky. If about half the league can legitimately think it has a chance to win it all, that makes for a much more compelling experience.

Not to mention how fantasy football has changed the way people are engaged with the sport. That’s a whole other column completely (which would talk about it in terms of the dawning of the Information Age) but needless to say, having some kind of competitive stake in every game adds excitement (and just wait until the day they make sports gambling legal everywhere.)

We’re excited about the start of the NFL over here at The Sherman Avenue Block Party, is what I’m getting at. So we’re going to preview all the conferences right here, to get you as excited as we are.

Without further ado, the Sherman Avenue Block Party NFL Previews!


THE AFC NORTH

Oh, wait, I wanted to get you excited about the NFL. Maybe I shouldn’t have started with one of the more boring divisions to watch in the entire league. Oops.

This is a division full of questions. Will the Cleveland Browns ever field a competitive team again? How long before Brady Quinn sees the field? How will the Pittsburgh Steelers do in their first year with a young new head coach? Will Ben Roethlisberger bounce back from a rocky 2006 season? Can the Baltimore Ravens ever get an offense to go along with their talented defense? Will Steve McNair finally have one of his body parts actually fall off during a game? Can the Cincinnati Bengals ever get a defense to go along with their talented offense? Will there be one column about them that doesn’t make a joke about so many of them getting arrested?

Here’s my predicted answers to those questions:

Not soon. Probably by week 11 against Houston. Most likely pretty well, since they have plenty of talent. Yes, he will. With Willis McGahee they have a good chance. I’d bet yes. Not this year. Yes – this column.

My predictions in general:

If the Ravens can be at all competent on offense, they should be the best team in this division. They have consistency in their coaching, a still-dominant defense, and a talented running back in McGahee.

The Bengals and Steelers will be competitive, but they have a few too many flaws. The Bengals defense is still suspect, and it’s hard to know how the Steelers will respond to the new coach and the inconsistency that defined them last year.

The Browns will probably stink less than last year. But not by much. They just simply lack talent – look at their draft history for the last five years if you want to see a picture of incompetence. The sooner Brady Quinn can get some experience, the better off they’ll be for 2008.


THE AFC EAST

I will in no way pretend that I can objectively analyze the AFC East. For I am a fan of the New York Jets. A fan of the die-hard and somewhat obsessed variety, and have been since I was a kid.

Of course, I am not currently 13 years old, and I don’t wear a fireman hat, so I will not predict Jets 16-0, everyone else 0-16 (Jetz Ruuule!) And, frankly, no true Jets fan is ever optimistic, even as a child.

The Jets will most definitely be a frustrating team to watch. As always. Just like chocolate milkshakes, which I too love, they will give me plenty of heartburn and indigestion to go along with my enjoyment.

To start with, they significantly improved the running game with the addition of Thomas Jones. The receivers, Coles and Cotchery, are better than average. Kerry Rhodes is a great young safety, and should make the Pro Bowl. The early draft choices, Darrelle Revis and David Harris, look like they’ll contribute right away on defense.

But this year’s team has a lot of questions on their lines, offensive and defensive. What it all boils down to is this: if they can protect Chad Pennington, they will win more games then people expect. Pennington can be great, but not under pressure. He needs to have time to make reads and throw to the right place. If he’s being rushed and being hit a lot, he tends to turn the ball over. They also need to get significantly better stopping the run on defense, and I’m not sure the guys they have on the line are equipped to do it in this 3-4 defense they employ.

As for the rest of the division, it is still the New England Patriots’ to lose, as much as it pains me to say so. They made a big splash in the offseason getting Adalius Thomas and a brand new receiving corps (Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, and Wes Welker.) They still have Tom Brady, and a very good defense. And of course their head coach, Bill Belichick, he of the three Super Bowl rings.

Yes, they have some questions, with a second-year guy as their running back and without Richard Seymour and Rodney Harrison for the first half of the season. If honesty prevailed, though, it’s hard to see what team keeps them from going far in the playoffs this year (unless, say, something horrible were to happen to Brady or Belichick, which I would never wish on them, because to wish fiery death and disease and pestilence on your opponents is beneath someone as classy as myself.)

The Buffalo Bills strike me as a team that will do better than people think. The offense started to come into its own last year, with J.P. Losman finally looking like a real starting QB. Losing McGahee will hurt them, but everyone seems to love their rookie Marshawn Lynch, and for what looks to me like good reason. They’re still pretty young, especially on defense, but it wouldn’t be a huge shock to me to see them at 7-5 going into the last month of the season fighting for a playoff spot.

The Miami Dolphins should be absolutely awful. And it couldn’t happen to a nicer guy in new coach Cam Cameron (see my post below.) I sincerely hope they become the laughingstocks of the league. Looking at their depth chart, I’d say that it’s a distinct possibility.


As a note to our readers, I will be doing plenty of Jets blogging throughout the season. None of that will be nearly as rational as I tried to make this preview.

The rest of the divisions will have previews posted this week. Stay tuned!