Here's my Super Bowl preview and in my eyes, it gets broken down to two match ups that will decide the game.
Giants Nickel Defense vs. Patriots Wide Receiver Screen
In my opinion, the Giants need to have corner backs Sam Madison, Arron Ross and Cory Webster on the field at all times, regardless if the Pats are in three wide or two tight ends. Tom Brady throws the ball too much to worry about matching up poor pass defenders like Reggie Torbor against anybody, yet along Wes Welker in the slot.
Nevertheless, the Pats are going to use screen passes to get the offense going and the WR Screen is a beaut.
Randy Moss and Welker to one side, run Dante Stallworth into motion to the strong side and snap the ball. Welker takes a step back, Moss and Stallworth block the defender in front of them and it leaves Welker one on one with nothing but grass and safety pursuit in front of him.
Yes, the Pats will run traditional half back screens to Kevin Faulk and Maroney, but against a speedy defensive front like the Giants, that won't work early in the game. This will and unless Ross and Webster tackle clean and crisp all game, it will be plays like this that spell doom for the G-Men.
Patriots Linebackers in 3-4 defense against Giants Play-Action Pass
For starters, this is a 4-3 defense but since Thomas plays standing up and occasionally drops into coverage, they call it a 3-4. But let's face it, if Elisha can drop back and see Thomas trying to cover Kevin Boss and slot receivers like Steve Smith all night, he'll dink and drop off all night.
So that leaves Teddy Bruschi, Senior Seau and Mike Vrabel with linebacking duties against a rushing attack that is a much better interpretation of Lightning and Thunder. I'm sure all true Giants fans remember the 2 to 4 games when Tiki Barber and Ron Dayne actually resembled this cute saying, but Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw are the real thing.
Unlike every TV announcer, and I'm sure Joe Buck will remind everyone if given the chance, I like Jacobs pounding it first and Bradshaw in reserve. If a defense gets an off-tackle play twice and the guy is running hard and pounding the hole, the third time through when Bradshaw flashes to that hole, then bounces away only works with the expectation from the first two runs.
We're all smart enough to know that Elisha is playing well because he's reading defense and checking down, not forcing the ball to receivers and yadda, yadda, yadda. What really helps is a strong running game behind an offensive line that's stayed healthy (for the most part) all year long.
So when he shows the ball like a carbon copy of Steve DeBerg, then pulls it back and looks downfield, it will be up to Bruschi, Seau and Vrabel to not flood to the running back and stay at home. If they're fooled, then Smith and Amani Toomer can have a big night underneath, helping to produce long time-consuming drives that keeps the Patriots offense off the field. That's the only way the Giants stand a chance at winning this game.
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2 comments:
Nice job with the Steve DeBerg call. I have read zero SB previews besides what is available here at TSABP. I'm sure someone else has said this, but... this looks like SB XXV to me.
The Pats have offense galore, but their defense looks good statistically, but is merely bend-but-don't-break. I watched AJ Feely pick them apart live and in person. FYI - AJ Feely isn't particularly good at football. Anyway, the Pats remind me of the 1990 Bills.
The Giants look like the Giants, only with uglier uniforms. They have playmakers on defense, a powerful ground game, and a QB that doesn't have much of a track record but has been playing well of late. If they can keep the Pats offense off the field, they have a shot.
That said, I predict Pats 42 Jints 28. Tom Coughlin is still Tom Coughlin, and when faced with Bellichick vs. Coughlin, you have to take Bellichick. I also got stuck with 2-8 in my box pool at work, otherwise I would only give the Jints 24.
I was wrong. Eli is the real deal.
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