Could it be, Cavs in 7?

First of all, if you know anything about me, you know I am not going with the curve when I make predictions. I think had the Albany Great Danes in the Sweet 16 in this years NCAA pool. It is easy to pick the Spurs, that doesn’t take any sack; it’s like rooting for John Wayne; to quote Ray Liotta in Goodfellas, “Jimmy (DeNiro) was the kind of guy who rooted for the bad guys in the movies.” I am that kind of guy when it comes to picking sports. I could say Spurs in 5 and then when that happens, nobody cares. However, if I say Cavs in 7 people listen; if I get it right I am a genius, if I get it wrong still nobody cares.

For the past few days as the hype has picked up I have started to closely analyze this series. And being a history buff I always look to our past to see if I can help make sense of the future, which is a good lesson for all the kids out there. Also, reading my own hyperbole about the rise of LeBron and the rise of Jordan to greatness (which, Dan, was what my piece was about not comparing their games or styles of play) I began to harking back to the days when Jordan first step foot on an NBA Finals court.

The year was 1991, the other Bush was still President, Saddam Hussein was alive, famed Yugoslavian Poet Vasko Popa died, Sonic the Hedgehog debuted, the Troodos Haven sunk in the Mediterranean carrying 144,000 tons of crude oil, Boris Yeltsin was elected president of Russia, Mount Unzen in Shimbara, Nagasaki, Japan erupts, and Pee Wee Herman was arrested in Florida for whacking it in a movie theatre. I could go on, but do you really care that in Hamlet, North Carolina, a grease fire broke out at the Imperial Foods chicken processing plant, killing 25 people or that Baudouin I, King of the Belgians died on July 31st, probably not.

Anyway, what was my point?

Ah yes, Michael Jordan was about to rule over the NBA and popular culture in America for the next decade. Again today I want to look at the comparisons and relative similarities to the situation LeBron James faces this June as did Jordan in June of 1991. Jordan squared off with the Magic Johnson lead Lakers which as we found out would be the end of their Showtime Dynasty. LeBron faces off with Tim Duncan’s ultra-conservative but supremely effective Spurs squad who have been the dynastic team of the last nine or so years.

We all forget that in 1991 Jordan was not yet Jordan. He was an upstart young player who people didn’t think had what it took to win, mainly because he didn’t yet make his teammates better. He got past a weaker Eastern Conference, and yes the conference was weaker, it was top heavy with the 2 time defending champion Pistons and the end of Celtics run as a good team. Otherwise the East had a mediocre 76ers, Knicks, Bucks and Hawks squads who all finished with no more than 48 wins. Magic’s Lakers battled through the West, sweeping a Houston Rockets team whose core would go on to win 2 NBA Championships later in the decade. Then the upstart Warriors with the best young trio in the league had upset the Spurs in round 1 and the Lakers disposed of them in 5 games. In the Conference Finals the Lakers faced the rival Portland Trailblazers who had been to the NBA Finals the year before and would the year after, the Lakers handled that in 6 games.

Over the previous 8 seasons the Lakers had averaged 60 wins a season and won three championships. The Lakers had a superstar player in Magic Johnson who was still terrific but in season 12 was on the other side of his career, along with teammates like James Worthy and Sam Perkins. They had some good young talented players like wingman Byron Scott and center Vlade Divac. Nobody really thought the Bulls had enough to take on the time tested and playoff experienced Lakers squad. But guess what happened, Jordan stamped his name on the game

Now if you look at it this series is setting up extremely similar. The Cavs got through a much weaker conference playoff bracket, really only being challenged by the only good team in the East (and 5 time consecutive Eastern Conference Final team), the Detroit Pistons. The Spurs had to get through the Western Conference which contained two 60 win teams. The Spurs had to beat the Denver Nuggets who had the best second half record in the league, then took care of the Suns in 6 games; the fun and gun Suns who everyone thought would win the championship with a two time MVP and 2 first team all NBA players. Lastly the Spurs easily handled the Utah Jazz won 51 regular season games. Sound familiar, if no just wait.

Over the previous 8 seasons the Spurs have averaged 58 wins a season and won three championships. The Spurs had a superstar player in Tim Duncan who was still terrific but in season 10 was on the other side of his career, along with teammates like Robert Horry and Michael Finley. They had some good young talented players like wingman Manu Ginobili and point guard Tony Parker. Nobody really thinks the Cavs had enough to take on the time tested and playoff experienced Spurs squad. Can LeBron stamp his name on the game?

Cavaliers in 7 games.