Kris and Dan Answer NBA Questions

"Who has been the most surprising rookie so far?"

DAN

For me, this has to be Brook Lopez. I said, over and over and over again, during the draft that the Lopez brothers looked like guaranteed NBA stiffs. I never saw anything from them in a college game that led me to believe they'd be anything better than career backup centers in the NBA. And this is the new NBA, where center isn't as important as it once was - Patrick Ewing isn't walking through that door, Hakeem Olajuwan isn't walking through that door, David Robinson isn't walking through that door, young Shaq isn't walking through that door, Kevin Duckworth is dead.

Well, color me surprised that Brook Lopez looks like a real, live NBA starter.

Let's look at some numbers (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lopezbr01.html)

He's playing 28 minutes a game.
He's averaging 10.1 points, 8 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks per game, and 1.7 turnovers per game.
That works out to 12.7 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks per 36 minutes.
His PER is 14.8 (average NBA player is 15) and his True Shooting % is 49.5%.

For fun, let's compare that to what Greg Oden is doing http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/odengr01.html

He's playing 23.1 minutes a game.
He's averaging 8 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.2 blocks per game, and 1.5 turnovers per game.
That works out to 12.5 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks per 36 minutes.
His PER is 15.8 (average NBA player is 15) and his True Shooting % is 57.1%.

Did anyone out there think that this season Brook Lopez would have incredibly similar per-36-minute numbers as Greg Oden?

I sure didn't. And that's what makes Brook Lopez the most surprising rookie so far this year.

KRIS

This is such a fun question to answer because of the unbelievable depth of this years rookies class. Never have so many rookies contributed in a significant way in this league.

As I am typing this I am still wrestling between Mario Chalmers and Marc Gasol. Chalmers hit the big shot in the National Championship game last year but coming out he was sort of a tweener. There were some questions about his ability to play the Point full time in the NBA. Gasol played well in the Olympics this summer, but the knock on him was his weight (stamina) and his ability to bring it every time out.

I am going to have to go with Chalmers. While I thought he would be a contributing player and get better increasingly throuhgout his career, he has been a consistant starter for a team fighting for a playoff spot.

Chalmers has started all but on game this season, and playing the PG spot he has allowed the ball to be out of Dwayne Wade's hands (helping keep him healthy) and allowing him to lead the league in scoring right now. Chalmers numbers aren't spectacular, but rather solid. In 32 minutes a game he is scoring 10 ppg and dishing out 4.7 assists, while being 6th in the league in steals at 1.9 a game. He is also shooting a respectable 36% from 3-pt range, as a rookie not known for his shooting range that is a very good percentage.

I also love the way Chalmers leads the team. He is very cool and calm, and obviously some of that comes from being a National Champion in college basketball.

For me, Chalmers has been the most suprising rookie.