Here Come The Warm Jets: 2009 Season Preview

And so it begins.

The days get shorter, the air cooler, women's clothing less revealing.

The 2009 NFL season approaches.

With another NFL season, you'll get another season of Jets blogging by me here at the Block Party. If you've followed us here for a while, you know what that means: reasonably intelligent football analysis mixed with shocking amounts of cynicism, bitterness and spewed invective.

As I enter my 23rd year of Jets fandom, I'd also like to take this opportunity to thank my 9-year-old self, who decided that long passes were more fun to watch than all-time-great defense, and thus chose to like the 1986 Ken O'Brien-Al Toon-Wesley Walker Jets instead of the LT-et al Giants. Instead of 3 Super Bowls and myriad playoff appearances, I got to live through the Rich Kotite, Bruce Coslet, Pete Carroll, Herm Edwards, and Eric Mangini eras. Nice job, 9-year-old me - apparently you decided then that you didn't want there to be an 80-year-old me, since no dedicated Jets fan can possibly have a heart and intestinal system that will last that long.

Well, hey, let's not get depressed about this year's team before it's necessary. Instead, let's take a look at the team as it looks now before the season starts.

The Coach

A good a place as any to start looking at this year's team, as we begin the Rex Ryan era. I have to say, I'm really psyched about this particular coach, as much as I've been since Bill Parcells came in 1997.

First of all, Rex Ryan is funny. Funny people go a long way with me - I'm much quicker to forgive your flaws if you can make me laugh. Now, let's be real - I don't want to have the funniest guy ever to lead my team to three 8-8 years in a row or anything. But I would like to have fun being a fan. This is supposed to be entertainment; if I wanted something really serious, I'd read articles about Afghanistan or Darfur.

If one thing could definitely be said about the Eric Mangini era, it's that it wasn't fun. He is a Bellichick disciple who likes to keep everything so secretive and cryptic that you'd think he was working in the Cold-War-era CIA and not for a football team. It was frustrating for us as fans, and it was ultimately frustrating for the players, too (they quit on him terribly the end of last year.)

And it's not like he's learned his lesson, by the way. What headline do I see on ESPN.com today? "Browns starting QB's ID hush-hush." Really? "Hush-hush?" What are you, naming an envoy to a secret meeting between the Syrians and the Israelis?

Anyway, Rex Ryan doesn't do it that way. He cracks jokes. He is self deprecating, and doesn't take himself so seriously. At the same time, he's a football guy through and through, which will give him credibility with the players. Also, he's a defense-first guy, and has the pedigree to back it up. If he can get the Jets defense anywhere near what the Ravens defense has been these last several years, there will be some very, very happy Jets fans (yes, Jets fans can be happy. It happened, once, around 1998 I think.)

Bringing his defensive philosophy? Great. Keeping the same offensive coordinator, so the team doesn't have to learn yet another new system? Very smart, considering the relative age and talent of the offensive players, and that Brian Schottenheimer, while not without flaws, is still a pretty creative and talented offensive coordinator. Bringing on the guy who the "46" defense was named after as a defensive backs coach? Awesome.

The Defense

As mentioned above, along with Rex Ryan comes his defensive philosophy, which consists of creating confusion for the opposing team's quarterback and offensive line, in terms of not knowing where pressure may come from on any given play. It also encourages speedy attacks as opposed to the 'read and react' style Mangini favored the last three years.

Do the Jets have all the pieces in place this year to run this defense as effectively as the Ravens did the past several years? Probably not, but it may not be as far off as it could be. Bringing on Bart Scott and Jim Leonhardt from the Ravens will help, since they're both familiar with the system and still young enough to play it (I'm so glad they got Scott instead of Ray Lewis, who only has so many good games left in him.)

It will also depend on how good David Harris, Kerry Rhodes, and Darrelle Revis really are. So far, these guys all look like they could be all-pro level for many years. This system should suit their talents well. Now they have to deliver.

The most worrisome part of the defense are the health of Kris Jenkins and lack of depth on the defensive line, as well as some big questions at the other cornerback spot (i.e. can Lito Sheppard be good again? If not, is there anyone else that can be at least average there?) There's also still the issue that the linebackers aren't great in coverage, which was a huge problem last year particularly exploited once Jenkins wore down towards the end of the year.

All that said, there's a lot of reason to be optimistic about the defense. There's no reason not to have faith that Rex Ryan can't recreate his defense with the Jets. At least not yet.


The Offense

This is what we know about the offense:

The offensive line is the same as last year. As are the running backs, with the addition of a talented rookie in Shonn Greene.

With this offensive line, Thomas Jones led the AFC in rushing last year, and Leon Washington averaged 5.9 yards per carry. They also allowed a sack on 5.4% of pass attempts, which was a bit better than the league average of 5.9%.

So we know the team is going to run plenty, and presumably pretty effectively.

We also know that Mark Sanchez, a rookie who only played one year of college ball, is the starting QB.

In preseason, Sanchez looked pretty good. It looked like he has a decent pocket presence and a strong enough arm. He's also a rookie, and bound to make mistakes.

So, basically, we have no idea what he'll be like.

He'll be asked to be a credible enough passing threat so that teams can't stack the line to stop the run. He'll also be asked to protect the ball, and keep turnovers to an absolute minimum.

He also has to do this without a lot of proven talent in the receiving corps. Jerricho Cotchery is very good, Dustin Keller looks ready to break out, but after that it's all unproven young guys like Chanci Stuckey and David Clowney.

What does this mean? If the Jets are lucky, it means an average offense to go along with what they hope to be a better-than-average defense. Teams have done very well with that formula. If the Jets aren't lucky, it'll mean a team like some of those Ravens teams where the atrociousness of the offense couldn't be overcome by their superior defense.


The Schedule

It's a much harder schedule than last year. Period.

Looking through it, you can only point to maybe two 'easy' games: the Raiders on October 25 in Oakland and the Bengals at home the last weekend of the year.

Otherwise, there's games against Tennessee, the Colts, Atlanta, New Orleans, Carolina, Tampa, and Jacksonville, along with the two annual games with the Pats.

I'm not sure how good Carolina, Tampa, or Jacksonville are going to be, but no matter what, it's not going to be easy, certainly not compared to last year when they played certifiably awful teams like the Rams and Kansas City.

Basically, Rex Ryan isn't going to get to ease into it. If he's going to do well his first year, he's going to have to earn it.


The Outlook

Between the new coach, the rookie QB, and the schedule, I'd say we're looking at 9-7 and just missing the playoffs as a best case scenario for the year. More likely is something around 7-9.

Either way, this year isn't about winning it all this year (though it'd be nice, don't get me wrong.) This year is about getting Sanchez a year of experience, getting the team playing in this defensive system for a year, and figuring out who can play in it and who can't.

It'll be about building a brand new culture for the team. Rex Ryan will be most successful in this job if he can make this team match his fiery and fun personality. In a press conference recently, he said the following:

I think that’s been the key for when I’ve been successful as a coach. We’ve always had that sense of pride in that room. That’s what I’m trying to do for the whole football team to really have that pride in each other and have that pride in being a jet. That’s something that I always talked in Baltimore was “play like a Raven.” I should’ve patented that bad boy [laughter]. That was something that I strived to do when I was there for many years. I sensed it and I think our guys really bought into that.

That’s what we’re trying to have here, to “play like a Jet.” It’s going to mean something. It’s going to mean that we care about each other. It’s going to mean that you’re going to get everything we’ve got and they’re not doing that for selfish reasons, they’re doing it to take care of each other. And when you play this year, you’re playing against a football team, not a group just of individuals. We’re going to play as a football team.

"Play like a Jet" used to mean something entirely different, and not necessarily positive. If all he does this year is get that to fundamentally change, I think I'll find a way to be much less bitter as a fan.

Of course, if they go 3-13 and look like a mess doing it, I'll be the same as I ever was.

Either way, you should have fun watching it happen each week here. So keep coming back!